Market Roundup
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate -42,-35 forecast, -26 previous
•Spanish Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 0.3%,3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.507% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.792% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.860% previous
•14:00 US Feb CB Employment Trends Index 113.71 previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00% previous
•15:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.240% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.105% previous
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.169% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Monday as traders grappled with uncertainty over the economic outlook and waited for U.S. inflation data later in the week. Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for February is forecast to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the annual pace steady at 3.1%. Core inflation is seen rising 0.3%, which will nudge the annual pace down to the lowest since early 2021 at 3.7%. The European Central Bank left rates at record highs last Thursday while cautiously laying the ground to lower them later this year. The euro was flat at $1.0941 after jumping as high as $1.0980 on Friday for the first time since Jan. 12.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0957(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0993(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0921(March 9th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0880(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound traded just below a seven-month high touched last week on Monday as investors digested recruitment data and looked ahead to Tuesday's wage and employment figures. The minor dip in the pound came after data showed Britain's labour market slowed sharply in February as recruitment firms reported the biggest drop in demand for staff from employers since the coronavirus lockdown of early 2021.Investors now turn their attention to Tuesday's figures, where the focus will be on the pace of average earnings growth. It is expected to have remained high at 6.2%, excluding bonuses, in the three months to the end of January, unchanged from December. Sterling was last down 0.1% at $1.2841. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2868(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2895 (March 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2799 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2757(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors waited for U.S. inflation data for further clue on the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for February is forecast to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the annual pace steady at 3.1%. Core inflation is seen rising 0.3%, which will nudge the annual pace down to the lowest since early 2021 at 3.7%.Traders are pricing in a more than 70% chance that the Fed could start cutting interest rates by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8812(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8871(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8761(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8736(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined on Monday as yen rose on expectation that Bank of Japan could exit negative rates. A growing number of BOJ policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates at their March 18-19 meeting, amid expectations for hefty pay rises from Japan's biggest firms. Results of this year's annual shunto wage negotiations are due on Wednesday. At the same time, an upward revision to Japan's economic growth last quarter meant the country avoided a technical recession, adding to the argument the economy could weather tighter policy. The dollar was down 0.4% against the yen, with the pair at 146.52 . Strong resistance can be seen at 147.58(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.80 (Feb 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.15(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.94(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stock indexes were mostly in the red in early trading on Monday, falling from last week's record highs as traders grappled with uncertainty over the economic outlook and waited for U.S. inflation data later in the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.66 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.32percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Monday after hitting a series of record highs last week, while investors waited for U.S. inflation data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,176.30 per ounce at 1121 GMT, after hitting a record high for the fourth consecutive session on Friday at $2,194.99.
Global benchmark Brent slipped on Monday, dipping below $82 a barrel, as persistent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Russia collide with jitters about softening demand in China.
Brent futures were down 31 cents at $81.77 a barrel as at 1222 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 34 cents to $77.67.
