Market Roundup
•UK Jan Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%,0.0%forecast,0.6% previous
•UK Jan Trade Balance Non-EU-3.42B, -3.32B previous
•UK Jan Trade Balance -14.52B, -14.90B forecast,-13.99B previous
•UK Jan Industrial Production (YoY) 0.5%,0.7% forecast,0.6% previous
•UK Jan Manufacturing Production (YoY) 2.0%,2.0% forecast,2.3% previous
•UK Jan GDP (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Jan Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change -0.1%,-0.1% forecast,-0.3%previous
•UK Jan U.K. Construction Output (YoY) 0.7%,-0.5% forecast,-3.2% previous
•UK Jan Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast,0.8% previous
•EU Jan Industrial Production (YoY) -6.7%,-2.9% forecast,1.2% previous
•EU Jan Industrial Production (MoM) -3.2%,-1.8% forecast,2.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.701M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.900M forecast,1.367M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.812M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories-1.900M forecast,-4.460Mrevious
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday as investors bet hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation won't stop the Federal Reserve and other central banks from cutting interest rates. U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in February, suggesting some stickiness in inflation. Data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in February. Annually, it increased 3.2%, above the 3.1% forecast. .Traders now see a 66% chance of the first rate cut coming in June, the CME FedWatch Tool showed. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25% to 5.50% range .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0957(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0993(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0913(March 12th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0880(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Wednesday after data showed Britain's economy returned to growth in January after entering a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. Britain's economy returned to growth in January after entering a shallow recession in the second half of 2023, offering some relief to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of an election expected this year, official data showed.Gross domestic product grew by 0.2% month-on-month - boosted by a rebound in retailing and house-building after a fall of 0.1% in December, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2808(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2864(March 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2756 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2698(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higer against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as greenback found support from slightly hotter than expected U.S. inflation. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased solidly in February, beating forecasts and suggesting some stickiness in inflation. Markets see almost no chance of a Fed cut later this month, but expectations for rate cuts in June have eased only a touch to about a 67% likelihood versus 71% earlier in the week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Focus now shifts to U.S. retail sales, producer price index, and weekly initial jobless claims print due on Thursday, which will provide a further update on the status of the US economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8808(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8856(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8756(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8723(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rose after higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Data indicated that U.S. consumer prices rose sharply in February, above expectations and indicating some inflation stickiness. Higher-than-expected inflation means that the US Fed will be under more pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer. However, Fed policymakers are still seen starting interest-rate cuts in June, even as a government report showed consumer prices rose last month more than expected. Traders now see about a 65% chance of a interest rate cut from the Fed in June, slight lower from the 72% seen before the data, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.61(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.43 (March 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.97(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.35(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares hit new record highs on Wednesday, led by gains in retail and utility stocks following upbeat corporate updates, while investors awaited industrial production data from the region.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday after dropping more than 1% in the previous session, as investors digested hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and still banked on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June.
Spot gold edged up 0.3% to $2,163.12 per ounce, as of 1047 GMT. Bullion posted its worst single-day drop since Feb. 13 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,168.50.
Oil rose on Wednesday, supported by potential supply disruption after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, signs of strong demand and hopes that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates soon despite somewhat sticky U.S. inflation.
Brent crude futures for May rose $1.06, or 1.3%, to $82.98 a barrel by 1104 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April gained $1.15, or 1.5%, to $78.71.
