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Europe Roundup: Euro falls after inflation data, European shares rise,Gold gains, Oil set for weekly gain as OPEC+ considers output cut-September 30th,2022

Market Roundup

•UK Current Account (Q2) -33.8B, -43.8B forecast,-51.7B previous

•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)0.2%,-0.1%               forecast, 0.8% previous

•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 4.4%, 2.9% forecast, 8.7% previous

•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 3.7%, -0.6% previous

•UK Sep Nationwide HPI (MoM)  0.0%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous

•UK Sep Nationwide HPI (YoY)  9.5%, 10.0% forecast, 10.0% previous

•French Aug Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.0%, -0.1% forecast, -0.8% previous

•French CPI (MoM)-0.5%,-0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous

•French HICP (MoM) -0.5%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous

• German Sep Unemployment Rate  5.5%, 5.5%  forecast, 5.5% previous

• German Sep Unemployment Change 14K, 20K forecast,28K previous

• UK Sep Mortgage Approvals 74.34K, 62.00K forecast,  63.77K previous

•EU Sep CPI (YoY)  10.0%, 9.7%  forecast, 9.1% previous

•Italian Sep CPI (YoY)  8.9%, 8.7% forecast, 8.4% previous

• Italian Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous

•EU CPI (MoM) 1.2%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•12:30 US Aug PCE Price index (YoY)  6.3% previous        

•12:30 US Aug Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous

•12:30 US   Aug PCE price index (MoM)  -0.1% previous

•12:30 US Aug Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2%  forecast ,0.1% previous

•12:30 US   Aug Core PCE Price Index (YoY)  4.7% forecast , 4.6% previous

•13:45 US Sep Chicago PMI  51.8 forecast, 52.2 previous

 •14:00  US Sep Michigan Inflation Expectations  4.6% previous

•14:00  US Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations  59.9 previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan Current Conditions  58.9 previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan Consumer Sentiment  59.5 forecast, 59.5 previous

•15:00   Canada Jul Budget Balance (YoY)  10.20B previous

•15:00 US Aug Dallas Fed PCE  3.40% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•13:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks

•15:30   ECB's Schnabel Speaks

•13:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

•13:00   US Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speaks


EUR/USD: The euro dropped on Friday after inflation in the euro zone hit a record high, but headed for a weekly gain on hawkish signals from the European Central Bank as some calm returned to foreign exchange markets at the end of a wild week. Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation zoomed past forecasts to hit 10.0% in September, a new record high that will reinforce expectations for another jumbo rate hike next month from the ECB. After several days of gains, traders took profit on the euro.By 1055 GMT, the euro traded at $0.9761, down 0.6% , while the dollar index roared 0.5% higher but is on course for a weekly loss. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9861 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9889(20DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9735(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9603(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling initially gained but gave up some ground in volatile trading on Friday, after data showed the British economy performed better-than-expected in the second quarter. Britain's economy remained below its pre-pandemic peak, according to data published on Friday that left the country further adrift of other Group of Seven nations and underscored the challenge facing new Prime Minister Liz Truss.The Office for National Statistics said economic output unexpectedly rose by 0.2% in April through June, revised up from a previous reading of a 0.1% contraction, meaning the British economy has not yet fallen into a recession. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1140(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (20DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0874(23.6%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday after the Swiss National Bank said it had intervened in the foreign exchange market in the second-quarter to support the currency. The Swiss National Bank sold 5 million Swiss francs ($5.1 million) worth of foreign currency in market interventions in the second quarter of 2022, data on Friday showed, ending an era of heavy foreign currency purchases to curb the franc's gains.Since scrapping its minimum exchange rate in 2015, the SNB has spent 353 billion francs buying mainly dollars, yen and euros to stem the appreciation of the safe-haven currency. At 11:17 GMT, the dollar was 0.60 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9808 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9814(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9861(Sep 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9775(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9732(38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the Japanese yen on Friday as expectation that Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher to tame inflation supported dollar.A strong U.S. jobs market with weekly jobless claims hitting a five-month low adds to the case of more aggressive tightening from the Fed. Overnight hawkish comments from Fed officials offered no indication that recent foreign exchange and bond market drama will lead the central bank to back off from its rate hike course. The dollar was unmoved against the yen at 144.47. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.89 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.60(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.99 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.22(38.2%fib).

Equities Recap

European stock indexes climbed on Friday, the last trading session of a painful quarter, hit by worries about the impact of aggressive policy tightening measures by central banks on economic growth and corporate earnings.

At (GMT 11:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC   was up by 0.36 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices gained on Friday, thanks to a softer dollar, but non-yielding bullion was headed for its biggest quarterly decline since March last year on an ongoing aggressive monetary policy stance by central banks worldwide.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,671.68 per ounce by 0823 GMT. Prices are set for their best weekly gain since end-July, up 1.7% so far. For the quarter, however, it is down 7.4% — its worst since the first quarter of 2021.

Oil prices were on track for their first weekly gain in five on Friday, underpinned by a weaker dollar and the possibility that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output when it meets on Oct. 5.

Brent crude futures for November, which expire on Friday, rose by 95 cents, or 1.07%, to $89.44 a barrel by 0948 GMT. The more active December contract was up 81 cents at $87.99.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 72 cents, or 0.89%, to $81.95.

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