Euro area November flash PMIs to show resilience

The final manufacturing PMI for October was revised upwards from the flash (52.3 from 52). Much change is not expected in the flash November figure, with the models suggesting a fall by one tick to 52.2. Services should remain unchanged from the previous month at 54.1. These figures are in line with the view that economic activity will remain firm over the coming quarters (close to 0.3% qoq). 

Overall, the picture should be one of resilience in the euro area economy but with the manufacturing sector lagging behind, still waiting for a recovery in global trade. On a country-by-country basis, the manufacturing PMI in France seen increasing from the low base of 50.6 to 50.9. The French services PMI should increase one tick to 52.8, continuing the momentum shown by the upward revision to the previous flash estimate. 

When judged against the other national confidence indicators such as the INSEE (released tomorrow), there is room for improvement. In Germany, a fall is expected in the manufacturing PMI from 52.1 to 51.7. The services PMI is set to fall from a 54.5 to a still robust 54.1.