Euro Area's uneven May industrial production growth

Greek industrial output fell by 4.7% mom in May, confirming that the Greek economy has been contracting in Q2. As a result, Greece, Ireland and the Netherlands were the main drivers of the weakness in euro area industrial production growth in May.


Available national data accounting for 90% of global Euro area industrial production growth points to -0.2% mom for May (1.6% yoy w.d.a). With some data released last week, France,Italy, and Spain all saw an increase in industrial production in May (0.4% mom, 0.9% mom, and 0.8% mom respectively) whereas German industrial output was flat. 

"If materialized, our forecast would imply that the carry-over of industrial output in Q2, assuming a constant profile in June, would be negative at -0.1% qoq, down from +0.9% qoq in Q1. That suggest that GDP growth will not gain strength in Q2 15", says Societe Generale.

Looking at the regional breakdown, Irish industrial output has been quite volatile over the past few months and fell sharply by 6.9% mom in May while Dutch industrial output also recorded a strong decrease of-5.7% mom.