EUR/USD Surges on Dismal US PMI: Bullish Trend Holds Strong

EUR/USD  surged more than 50 pips after dismal US PMI data. It hit an intraday high of 1.15884 and is currently trading around 1.15744. Overall trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1500 holds.

From 50.8 in June, the US ISM Services PMI fell to 50.1 in July 2025, indicating nearly stagnation in the services industry and failing to match the 51.5 market expectation. This downturn was marked by decreased business activity, a fall in fresh orders, and continued employment cuts. Price pressures increased at the same time; the price index reached its highest level since October 2022 mostly owing to tariff effects. Both new export and import orders shifted from expansion to contraction, emphasizing the negative effect of trade conflicts, whereas order backlogs decreased and employment continued to fall.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 15-minute chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1600; a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1660/1.1748/1.1778. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1500; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1435/1.1378/1.1360/1.1300/1.12300.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Neutral

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to buy above 1.1600 with a stop-loss at 1.15490 for a target price of 1.1700/1.1765.