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The EUR/HUF currency pair is expected to rise to a level of 315.00 by the end of this year after the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) left all monetary policy parameters on hold yesterday as markets had anticipated. The statement reiterated that MNB is prepared to ease policy further using unconventional measures and that the inflation target will most probably sustainably achieve target sometime during the first half of 2018.
The MPC's guidance is still overwhelmingly dovish, with practically no concern expressed about high inflation even in the medium-term. However, there is still need to watch out for the June Inflation Report to see what changes, if any, MNB will make to inflation projections;
Further, there also exist downside risks to current forecasts; core inflation may briefly approach target because of the recent sharp minimum wage hike, but it is not clear that underlying momentum is really upward.
"We see MNB remaining ultra-dovish even as the ECB announce tapering later this year; it will probably welcome any FX depreciation that results," Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.
