Dollar Posts Strongest Weekly Gain Since October on Hawkish Fed and U.S.-Iran Tensions

The U.S. dollar is on track to record its strongest weekly performance since October, supported by upbeat economic data, a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, and rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Stronger-than-expected labor market figures, including a drop in weekly jobless claims, reinforced confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and boosted demand for the greenback.

In early Asian trading, the dollar held firm near a one-month high, pressuring major currencies. Sterling hovered around $1.3457, close to a one-month low, and is set for a weekly decline of nearly 1.5%. The euro slipped slightly to $1.1768, heading for a 0.8% weekly loss amid uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s tenure. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index stood at 97.89, marking a gain of more than 1% for the week.

Federal Reserve policy expectations remain a central driver of currency markets. Recent Fed minutes revealed several policymakers are open to further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent. Although investors are still pricing in roughly two rate cuts this year, the probability of a June cut has eased to around 58%, according to CME FedWatch data. Upcoming releases of the U.S. core PCE price index and fourth-quarter GDP figures are expected to influence the next move in forex markets.

Geopolitical risks have also fueled safe-haven demand for the dollar. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach a nuclear agreement within 10 to 15 days, prompting threats of retaliation from Tehran. Escalating tensions could significantly impact oil prices and global currency markets.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar traded at $0.7055, supported by hawkish domestic rate expectations, while the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.5967 amid a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Japanese yen weakened to 155.08 per dollar after Japan’s core inflation slowed to 2.0%, reducing pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further.