Daily Economic Outlook: 5th November 2015

Today, market's focus will be on the BoE monetary policy announcement, with the simultaneous publication of the MPC minutes and the Inflation Report. 

"Due to the poor performance of the global economy and recent fall in domestic momentum, the MPC will need to re-examine its previous assumptions of ongoing relative UK economic strength leading to firmer cost pressures.The MPC's communications overall is likely to paint the prospect of an eventual but unhurried tightening", says Lloyds Bank.

FOMC speakers alongside US productivity data for 2015 Q3 are likely to be observed for implications on US monetary policy lift-off. With the profile of GDP growth choppy over 2015, underlying productivity trends are hard to gauge.

Lloyds Bank says that the MPC will perhaps point towards an inflation overshoot "beyond the 2-year horizon", thereby emphasizing on an eventual policy tightening, regardless of the possibility of downward near-term revisions to the GDP growth as well as inflation projections of the economy. But with the timing allowed to slip by a quarter, even this passive change could  be seen as dovish. Crucially, the MPC's forecasts will be conditioned on a much shallower policy rate profile than in August. 

"As such, the MPC's indication of steeper rate expectations would start from a much lower base. In terms of the vote split, one MPC member, more likely Forbes than Weale, is expected to join McCafferty in voting for higher rates. An unchanged 8-1 vote split would render more likely a move later in 2016 than our current expectation of February 2016", added Lloyds Bank.