Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 95.23 (+0.1%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.13%, Franc -0.15%, Yen +0.29%, GBP +0.24%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.85%, Franc -1.67%, Yen -1.23%, GBP +1.86%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.12

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Buy

Support

• Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.115, Short term – 1.125   

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.17, Short term – 1.17

Economic release today –

• Euro Zone Construction output declined by 0.5% y/y in March.

Commentary –

• Euro is on its way to test support around 1.1 area. FOMC minutes pushed Dollar higher and Euro lower. our longer term target for Euro to reach as high as 1.20 against Dollar.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.462

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.4, Medium term – 1.4, Short term – 1.427 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.47, Medium term – 1.467, Short term – 1.467

Economic release today –

• Retail sales rose 4.3% y/y, up 1.3% m/m in April.

Commentary –

• Pound is best performer this week, and only currency to have risen against Dollar after hawkish minutes. Further rise and test of 1.48 area likely.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 109.8

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 98.5, Medium term – 102.8, Short term – 105

Resistance –

• Long term – 121, Medium term – 115, Short term – 111.2

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Yen weakened beyond 110 area, however gaining back some ground over falling equities. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5 First three target reached, new target 90 added.

USD/CHF –                                                                                         

Trading at 0.99

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.905, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.98

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc is worst performer this week. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.9 area in the medium term.