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China’s export growth likely slowed sharply in April as escalating U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty weighed on outbound shipments. According to a Reuters poll of 32 economists, exports rose just 1.9% year-on-year in April, down from a robust 12.4% gain in March, when exporters rushed to beat new tariffs.
Imports likely fell further, declining 5.9% versus a 4.3% drop in March. The April trade data, set to be released Friday at 0300 GMT, will offer a clearer view of the trade war’s immediate toll on China’s $18.7 trillion economy.
The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, adding to earlier levies from both his first term and the Biden administration. China retaliated by imposing 125% tariffs on U.S. goods and targeting key exports like rare earths, soybeans, and LNG.
China’s economic recovery, still fragile post-pandemic, has leaned heavily on exports. Domestically, stimulus efforts have only picked up pace since late last year. On Wednesday, Chinese authorities introduced new monetary measures, including liquidity injections and policy rate cuts, aiming to cushion the blow from trade tensions.
Nomura analysts estimate the U.S. accounted for 20.6% of China’s total exports in 2024 when factoring in re-exports through Hong Kong. They warn the tariffs could reduce China’s GDP by 1.1% in the near term if U.S.-bound exports are halved, with about 2.2% of GDP directly exposed.
Despite hopes for de-escalation, uncertainty remains. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled for Saturday in Switzerland. April’s trade surplus is forecast at $89 billion, down from $102.64 billion in March, as factory activity contracted at the fastest rate in 16 months.
