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China’s economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting its target, but concerns over imbalanced growth persist. Industrial gains overshadowed consumer spending, with many citizens reporting declining living standards. Structural issues could deepen in 2025, as Beijing faces mounting U.S. trade tensions and plans to boost growth through debt-driven stimulus.
Data revealed industrial output significantly outpacing retail sales, with unemployment edging higher. Export-led growth was supported by factory gate deflation, making Chinese goods competitive but straining domestic profits and wages. Analysts warn continued focus on industrial upgrades and infrastructure could exacerbate overcapacity, suppress consumption, and fuel deflation.
Economist Eswar Prasad expressed skepticism about China's precise 5% growth figure, given weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector. Nomura analysts emphasized the need for fiscal and monetary reforms, resolution of the property crisis, and improved geopolitical relations to sustain growth.
Challenges for 2025 include higher tariffs, a deepening property crisis, and 16% youth unemployment. While Beijing has pledged to boost consumption, initiatives remain limited. A modest rise in civil servant pay contrasts with private sector wage cuts, adding to public unease. For professionals like Jiaqi Zhang, reduced salaries and job losses reflect broader economic uncertainty.
Official data, showing a 5.4% growth in Q4, raised doubts. Some economists estimate real growth was closer to 2.8%, citing disconnects between stable figures and aggressive stimulus measures. Critics warn inflated growth rates obscure deeper issues like overcapacity and faltering domestic demand.
China's markets showed mixed reactions, with shares rising slightly but the yuan remaining weak. Analysts forecast slower growth in 2025, projecting a 4.5% rate amid heightened skepticism over official statistics and economic sustainability.
