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China's 2017 GDP likely to fall to 6.3 pct as credit growth slows, says Fitch Ratings

The Chinese economy is expected to growth at around 6.3 percent this year, a downward adjustment of 0.1 percentage point since the November 2016 GEO, following slowdown in the country’s credit growth. The possibility of punitive trade restrictions under the Trump administration is a key downside risk, Fitch Ratings reported.

China’s economy grew slightly faster than anticipated in 4Q16 at 6.8 percent as the impact of earlier stimulus measures proved effective and consumer and service sector growth remained robust.

Growth in 2016 as a whole was slightly faster than the government’s target at 6.7 percent. GDP has expanded at an annual average rate of 7.7 percent since 2010 and would need to grow at 6.4 percent per annum over the next four years to hit the authorities’ objective of doubling real GDP by 2020.

The recent stabilization in growth has seen policy makers’ focus shift to curbing the growth of leverage. Regulators have been tightening macro prudential controls on banks’ shadow funding activities since late 2016 and this has, alongside the hike in Fed rates and continuing large-scale capital outflows, resulted in a tightening in domestic money market liquidity.

"The People’s Bank of China has increased a number of key money-market interest rates, and we no longer expect any further cuts in the official policy lending rate this year. House purchase restrictions have also been rolled out on a much wider basis across the country," the report commented.

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Fintech Week Chicago

April 27 19:00 UTC Released

ARIndustrial Output NSA*

Actual

-0.4 %

Forecast

-3 %

Previous

-6 %

April 27 15:00 UTC Released

SAPvt Sector Loans YY*

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-0.1 %

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0.3 %

April 27 21:00 UTC 2828m

KRBOK Manufacturing BSI*

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78 bln $

April 27 23:00 UTC 148148m

KRService Sector Output Gr*

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0.1 %

April 27 23:00 UTC 148148m

KRIndustrial Output YY*

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3.7 %

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6.6 %

April 27 23:00 UTC 148148m

KRIndustrial Output Growth*

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Forecast

2.0 %

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-3.4 %

April 27 23:01 UTC 149149m

GBGfK Consumer Confidence

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-7 %

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-6 %

April 27 23:30 UTC 178178m

JPAll Household Spding YY*

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-0.3 %

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-3.8 %

April 27 23:30 UTC 178178m

JPAll Household Spending MM*

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-0.8 %

Previous

2.5 %

April 27 23:30 UTC 178178m

JPCPI, Core Nationwide YY

Actual

Forecast

-0.2 %

Previous

-0.4 %

Fintech Week Chicago
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