Bearish guidance for Turkey's June exports

Turkish Exporters Assembly own sample suggests that Turkish exports declined again by 6.4% y/y in June, but recovered from the -19% y/y of May, which had been triggered by auto sector strikes. 

The June data from the sample continued to show weak exports to the EU - down 5%-6% in June (vs. -21% y/y in May) - and also weak exports to Russia (down more than 30% y/y), notes Commerzbank. While the June data did confirm the anticipated rebound from auto sector strikes in May, the data are still negative for TRY, at the margin, as it highlights an extended soft-patch for Turkish exports, even while CE3 exports have been recovering in recent months.