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A tumble in the peso in May has stoked expectations of an rate hike either at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting, on June 30, or at an exceptional meeting before then. The Mexican peso has slumped about 7 percent this month, the second-worst performer, behind the South African rand.
A similar sharp drop in Mexico's peso had pushed the central bank in February to intervene directly in currency markets for the first time since 2009 and to raise interest rates unexpectedly thereafter in an unscheduled meeting.
Putting to rest speculation about an unscheduled rate hike, Banxico’s governor Agustin Carstens on Wednesday said that the recent Peso depreciation has taken place in an orderly manner and with adequate liquidity conditions. He stressed the relevance of US monetary policy and pointed out that he expects that upcoming MPR movements will be made during scheduled meetings. Carstens said further intervention hasn’t been ruled out, but stressed that it would only be under exceptional circumstances.
"In view of the recent communication, we maintain our expectation of synchronisation between the monetary policy of Mexico and the US." said BBVA in a research report.
The Bank of Mexico has kept interest rates unchanged since raising the overnight rate by half a percentage point to 3.75% in February, but is widely expected to match any rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain the attractiveness of local assets.
"It seems that Banxico will try to move with the calendar, so the chance is lower of a surprise rate increase. But a hike is coming, sooner or later. We forecast borrowing costs will rise by half a point in the June meeting." said Marco Oviedo, chief Mexico economist at Barclays
