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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to lower its economic growth forecast at its upcoming April 30–May 1 policy meeting, as escalating tariff risks from U.S. President Donald Trump threaten Japan’s export-driven recovery. According to three sources familiar with internal discussions, the central bank is likely to revise down its 1.1% GDP growth projection for fiscal 2025 in its May 1 quarterly report.
The BOJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% amid continued market volatility driven by Trump’s shifting trade policy. The extent of the impact on Japan's economy depends largely on whether Tokyo can secure exemptions during bilateral talks with Washington this week.
Despite concerns, BOJ insiders maintain that while Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy, they are unlikely to derail the underlying inflation trend. The central bank still believes that Japan’s economy is on track for a moderate recovery, though progress toward the 2% inflation target—critical for further rate hikes—may be delayed.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reaffirmed in a media interview the bank’s commitment to raising rates at a measured pace. However, he also acknowledged the possibility of adjusting policy depending on the fallout from U.S. tariffs, hinting at a potential pause in the rate hike cycle.
Additional insights may emerge when board member Junko Nakagawa speaks at a public event on Thursday, where she is expected to address concerns over trade-related economic risks.
The BOJ’s policy stance and growth revision come at a critical time, as Japan navigates global uncertainty and seeks to sustain inflation momentum amid rising external pressures.
