Average earnings data will be key in US NFP release

The US growth outlook is improving. While recent manufacturing surveys have been mixed, the ISM manufacturing index is seen edging up to 53.5 from 52.8, offering tentative signs that the sector is slowly turning a corner after a difficult H1. 

The coming week is also important for labour-market data. Non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are seen decelerating to 235,000 from 280,000 in May, but at this level they would still indicate a healthy labour market. 

"We expect the unemployment rate to drop further to 5.3%",said Standard Chartered in a report on Friday.

The focus is likely to be on average earnings data after Chair Janet Yellen sounded unconvinced by the tentative signs of stronger wage growth and said at the last FOMC meeting that wage growth was still 'subdued'. This data will be key going into the 15 July semi-annual congressional testimony. Note that NFPs will be released on Thursday, not Friday.