Overall house price inflation in Australia is likely to have slowed in Q1 compared with Q4, which would make it the fourth consecutive quarter the annual rate has slowed.
According to Scoiete Generale the following two points are worth noting.
- First there is some seasonality in the data and Q1 tends to be the second-weakest quarter, hence the modest quarterly gain.
- Second, at 0.9%, the gain would be quite solid given the average 0.6% qoq Q1 gain over the past ten years (median and mean) during which time average annual property price inflation averaged 5.1% - it's just that the Q1 2014 gain of 1.4% qoq was the second-largest Q1 gain in the past 11 years. Perhaps most importantly, at 6.3% yoy real estate inflation would remain very strong, regardless of the slowdown.
