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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stimulus measures have sparked a rally across Asian markets. This week, China introduced a series of monetary, liquidity, and fiscal policies, fueling investor hopes for an economic turnaround akin to Mario Draghi’s 2012 pledge to save the euro.
While it's unclear whether these efforts will drive sustained recovery, they have managed to ease concerns over near-term growth and inflation.
Global Risk Assets Respond to Optimism
The effects of China’s policy moves extend beyond Asia. As the U.S. economy remains on a path toward a “soft landing,” and the Federal Reserve continues to manage rates proactively, global markets have seen a boost. On Thursday, the MSCI World and S&P 500 indices both reached new highs, signaling growing confidence among investors.
Asian Markets Surge, Eye Profit-Taking
Shanghai’s blue-chip index is up 10.8% for the week, setting the stage for its largest weekly rise since 2014. The broader Shanghai Composite Index gained 9.7%, potentially marking its best week since 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also saw a 4% rise on Thursday, totaling a 9% gain for the week — the highest in 13 years. However, potential profit-taking looms as the quarter ends and China’s Golden Week holiday approaches.
Caution Amid Euphoria
While market sentiment has rebounded from earlier lows, a cautious approach is warranted. The recent measures in China may not fully resolve deeper economic challenges, much like how Draghi’s interventions did not completely solve the euro zone’s issues. China's efforts may not eliminate the property crisis, deflationary risks, or long-term demographic issues, though they provide temporary relief.
Key Indicators to Watch on Friday
- Tokyo Inflation (September): Expected to show a core rate slowdown to 2.0% from 2.4%.
- Japan’s Leading Indicators (July): Potential influence on the economic outlook and market direction.
- German Unemployment (September): Impact on broader global economic trends.
Friday's data releases will provide further direction for Asian markets as investors weigh the latest developments from China and Japan.
