Market Roundup
- US Redbook MM w/e 0.8%, 0.8%-prev
- US Redbook YY w/e 2.8%, 3.2%-prev
- US CaseShiller 20 MM SA Dec 0.9%, f/c 0.6%, 0.8%-prev
- US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Dec 0.1%, f/c -0.2%, -0.2%-prev
- US CaseShiller 20 YY Dec 4.5%, f/c 4.3%, 0.04-prev
- US Markit Comp Flash PMI Feb 56.8, 54.40-prev
- US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Feb 57.00, f/c 54.10, 54.20-prev
- US Consumer Confidence Feb 96.40, f/c 99.60, 103.8-prev
- US Rich Fed Comp. Index Feb 0, 6-prev
- US Rich Fed, Services Index Feb 18, 14.00-prev
- US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Feb -1, 10-prev
- US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Feb 1.7, -2.8-prev
- US Dallas Fed Services Revenues Feb 13.6, 12.1-prev
- MX 1st Half-Month Inflation Feb 0.11%, 0.16%, -0.19%-prev
- MX 1st Half-Mth Core Infl. Feb 0.28%, 0.17%, -0.09%-prev
- BR IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI Feb 1.33%, 1.29%, 0.89%-prev
- BR IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI YY Feb 7.36%, 7.34%, 6.69%-prev
- BR Current Account Jan -10.654b, -10.990b, -10.317b-prev
- BR Foreign Direct Investm't Jan 3.968b, 3.300b, 6.650b-prev
- Fed's Yellen change in forward guidance should not be read as indicating Fed will raise rates in a couple of meetings, if conditions continue to improve committee will consider rate hike on meeting-by-meeting basis, employment situation improving, expects inflation to decline in near-term rising gradually in medium-term
- Fed's Yellen on 'Audit the Fed' strongly opposes, audit the Fed would politicize monetary policy
- ECB's Coene on bond-buying programme says have to be careful not to inflate bubbles, says if a country wants to leave the euro why shouldn't it be allowed to happen (De Telegraaf)
- Bk of Canada's Poloz says one lesson from 2008 crisis is debt fueled imbalances are particularly hazardous
- BoC governor Poloz says wouldn't expect volatility resulting from central bank dropping forward guidance
- BoC governor Poloz says we're not without our tools because rate announcement doesn't also have monetary policy report
- BOE's Miles persistent below-trend UK productivity is concerning
- Turkish central bank cuts main interest rate by 25 bps to 7.5%
- Hungary keeps base rate at 2.1 pct, as expected
- ECB supervisor says Greek banks solvent (FT)
- EU's Moscovici Euro zone's Greek deal averts crisis, but is only starting point
- Euro zone response to Greek reform plan promising (OECD's Gurria)
- Austrian FinMin says can imagine positive result in Greek debt talks
- Spain's PM sees 2015 GDP growth of 2.4 percent
- Brazil aims for fiscal savings of USD28 bln in 2015 (source)
- Three regional U.S. Fed banks repeated call for bank rate hike (Philly, KC & Dallas)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Construction Work Done Q4 (consensus -1.2%, previous -2.20%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Wage Price Index QQ Q4 (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.60%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Wage Price Index YY Q4 (consensus 2.5%, previous 2.60%)
- (2045 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Mfg PMI Flash Feb (consensus 49.5, previous 49.70)
- (1840 ET/ 2340 GMT) New Zealand RBNZ Governor Wheeler at Finance Select Committee
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY surged to the strongest level in a week at 119.82 at the beginning of Yellen's presentation, but then reversed sharply and dropped more than a hundred pips, erasing all gains. The pair currently remains below 119.00, trading at 118.91 around the same price it closed yesterday.
USD/CAD: CAD is sharply appreciating vs. the US dollar on Tuesday. USD/CAD tested 2-day lows around 1.2530 on the day. The pair is trading deep into the red after BoC Governor S.Poloz's comments, currently at 1.2503. Poloz stressed that the current decline in oil prices is a 'net negative' for the economy, hampering prospects of economic growth. Poloz argued that the economy remains committed to flexible exchange rate. Pair could likely target 1.2422 (low ) en route to 1.2360.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD trading ranges continue to compress amid weak multi day momentum. The single currency recovered the sharp drop to the 1.290 vs. the dollar, now to trade back around 1.1335. Focus shall be on Janet Yellen's second testimony and another speech by ECB's Mario Draghi. Initial barrier seen at 1.1370 followed by 1.1430 and then 1.1450. Support levels at 1.1270 and finally 1.1262.
GBP/USD: The pair found decent support near 1.5400 following the USD strength after Yellen's testimony. But has successfully managed to return to opening levels, to trade currently at 1.5451. Next support is at 1.5400 and then 1.5317 with resistance initially at 1.5490 (daily cloud top) and then 1.5500.
EUR/CHF: EUR/CHF managed to recover ground over the last hours and erased intraday losses amid progress in Greek bailout negotiations. Technical bias remains to the topside and as long as the pair holds above its near-term bullish trend line. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0765, virtually unchanged on the day.
