Market Roundup
•US Continuing Jobless Claims4,771K, 5,054K forecast, 5,054K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 868.00K, 848.00K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 847K,875K forecast, 900K previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.1%,0.0% previous
•Canada Dec Building Permits (MoM) -4.1%,-5.0% forecast, 12.9% previous
•US Dec Goods Trade Balance -82.47B, -85.49B previous
•US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto 1.1%, 0.2% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 1.9%, 2.4% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 1.40%,1.50% forecast, 3.40% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.0%, 25.9% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 4.0%, 4.0%, 33.4% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q4) 1.5%, 3.7% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 2.5% ,41.0% previous
•US New Home Sales 842K, 865K forecast, 841K previous
•US Dec Leading Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Dec New Home Sales (MoM) 1.6%, 1.9% forecast, -11.0% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage-128B,-136B forecast -187B previous
•Russia Dec Unemployment Rate 6.1% forecast, 6.1% previous
•Russian Nov Real Wage Growth (YoY) 0.2%,-0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Russian Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -3.6%, -2.5% forecast, -3.1% previous
•US Jan KC Fed Manufacturing Index 17, 12 previous
•US Jan KC Fed Composite Index 22, 14 previous
Looking Ahead – Economic (GMT)
•23:30 Japan Jan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Jan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) -0.6%forecast, -0.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Unemployment Rate 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Jobs/applications ratio 1.06 forecast, 1.06 previous
•23:40 Japan Feb Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) 7.2 previous
•23:30 Japan Industrial Dec Production (MoM) -1.5%forecast, -0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q4) -0.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q4) 0.4%previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against greenback on Thursday as extended coronavirus lockdowns and talk of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank weighed on euro. Euro came under pressure as a member of the ECB’s governing council, Klaas Knot, said the central bank could decide to cut its deposit rate further below zero if that proved necessary to keep its inflation target in sight. The common currency was last down 0.07% at 1.2099. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2123 (5EMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2209 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2067 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound staged a temporary retreat on Thursday as investors tempered some of their optimism about Britain’s vaccine rollout, but a weaker dollar later helped it return above $1.37.Sterling hit its highest level against the dollar since May 2018 on Wednesday and later reached an eight-month high against the euro, a move analysts attributed to Britain rolling out COVID-19 vaccines faster than continental Europe.Concern about vaccine rollouts globally, and the impact of mutations of the coronavirus, created a cautious tone in markets.But the dollar weakened at around 1340 GMT, with Wall Street equities rallying, causing cable to head back towards its highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3677 (5EMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3700(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3639 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3601(25 EMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, with the currency recovering from an earlier five-week low as worries receded that short squeezes by an army of retail investors would threaten the financial system. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, eased as the market focused on delays to vaccine rollouts and fresh travel curbs that could depress demand. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.2797 to the greenback. cents, having rebounded from its weakest intraday level since Dec. 23 at 1.2881. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2832 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2884 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2789 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2749 (55 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors flocked to the safety of the dollar following an overnight Wall Street sell-off, after the U.S. Federal Reserve flagged a slowdown in the pace of economic recovery. Wall Street suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop in three months overnight, with declines accelerated in the wake of the policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The dollar gained 0.22 % at 104.34 against Japanese yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.44 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.60 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.09 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.78 (50% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed higher on Thursday as a bounce in Wall Street stocks, gains in airlines and upbeat earnings reports drove a reversal of early losses across markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.93 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, bouncing from sharp losses in the prior session, thanks to a broad rally as earnings season got off to a strong start and fears lessened around hedge funds selling long positions to cover shorts.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.99% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.98% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.50% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Thursday, in tandem with gains on Wall Street, after fourth-quarter growth data for the world's largest economy was not as weak as initially feared, while initial weekly jobless claims were below forecast.
U.S. 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year yields fell before the economic data and rose after that, steepening the yield curve after flattening the last four sessions. The spread between U.S. two-year and 10-year yields widened to 92.90 basis points.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Thursday as investors opted for the relative shelter of the U.S. dollar from waning risk-on sentiment and after the U.S. Federal Reserve expressed worries over the slow pace of economic recovery.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,840 an ounce by 1258 GMT. Prices had fallen to their lowest since Jan. 18 at $1,830.80 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures GCv1 shed 0.3% to $1,838.60.
