Market Roundup
• US Q1 GDP 2nd Estimate, 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US Q1 Core PCE Prices Prelim, 1.0%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
• US Apr Adv Goods Trade Balance, -72.12 bln, -71.33 bln previous
• US 25 May, w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 215k, 215k forecast,, 211k previous
• US 18 May, w/e Continued Jobless Claims, 1.657 mln, 1.662 mln forecast, 1.676 mln previous
• US Apr Pending Homes Index, 104.3, 105.8 previous
• Fed's Clarida sees U.S. economy in a 'very good place'
• Fed's Quarles says financial stability not main goal of monetary policy
• Trump says U.S. doing well in trade talks with China
• U.S. wants new trade pact with Canada, Mexico passed by summer -Pence
• Ahead of UK visit, Trump praises Brexit-supporting 'friends' Johnson and Farage
• Bank of Canada sees rising business investment, frets over US-EU trade tensions
• CA Q1 Current Account C$, -17.35 bln, -18.00 bln forecast, -15.48 bln previous, -16.62 revised
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 30 May 23:30 Japan Apr Jobs/Applicants Ratio, 1.63 forecast, 1.63 previous
• 30 May 23:30 Japan Apr Unemployment Rate, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 30 May 23:50 Japan Apr Industrial Output Prelim MM SA, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 30 May 23:50 Japan Apr Retail Sales YY, 0.8% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 31 May 01:00 China May Composite PMI, 53.4 previous
• 31 May 01:30 Australia Apr Housing Credit, 0.2% previous
• 31 May 05:00 Japan May Consumer Confid. Index, 40.4 previous
• 31 May 05:00 Japan Apr Construction Orders YY, 66.1% previous
• 31 May 05:00 Japan Apr Housing Starts YY, -0.9% forecast, 10.0% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 13:15 Fed's Bostic to moderate conversation, "Assessing the Global Economy: an Insider's Look" before the Hope Global Forums 2019 Annual Meeting, Atlanta
• 16:00 Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases text of President John Williams' speech delivered before a closed conference celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as worries about the outlook of the euro zone economy, together with worries about the rise of euro-sceptic political parties within EU member countries weighed on the single currency. The euro was down 0.01% at $1.1129, within striking distance of $1.11055 hit a week ago, which was a two-year low.An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was up 0.03 percent at 96.17 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1165 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1182 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1109 (23.6% retracement level).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell below $1.26 against dollar on Thursday, for the first time since a January 3 flash crash, extending recent losses made on the back of signs that whoever succeeds Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to be a hard Brexit proponent. The ruling Conservatives suffered a drubbing at last week's EU parliamentary elections at the hands of the Brexit party, pushing candidates for party leaderships further towards favouring exit from the European Union by the Oct. 31 deadline, with or without a deal in place. The pound, which had been broadly steady for most of the European session, dropped under that level as the dollar firmed to a one-week high and a large batch of options with a $1.2600 strike price rolled off at the New York markets open. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2665 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2700 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2577 (Daily Low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar gained against the greenback on Thursday, recovering from a near five-month low a day earlier, as trade-related pressure eased on financial markets . Global stocks steadied after hitting the lowest levels in more than two months on Wednesday, when investors worried that a drawn-out trade dispute between the United States and China could weigh on global growth.On the data front, Canada runs a current account deficit and exports many commodities, including oil, so its economy could be hurt by a slowdown in the global flow of trade or capital. The price of oil was supported by a tightening crude market and rising political tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil futures were up 0.5% at $59.08 a barrel. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3497 to the greenback, or 74.13 U.S. cents. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3542 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3600 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3480 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3413 (50 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as the trade stand-off between China and the United States prompted traders to put money into perceived safe haven assets . After Chinese outlets reported that China could use its rare earths supply as leverage against the United States, a Chinese diplomat accused Washington of economic terrorism. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready to strike a trade deal with China, but on Thursday he said Washington was doing well in their talks. The dollar was 0.04 percent lower versus the Japanese yen at 109.57. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.69 (50 % retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.38 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 108.00 (Ichimoku Cloud Top).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Thursday, boosted by media firms enjoying their best day in nearly five months on an earnings result and a potential deal - but the main regional index was on track to post its first monthly decline of 2019.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.5 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.5 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.5 percent.
U.S. stocks showed signs of stabilizing on Thursday, but gains were kept in check by conflicting comments on trade talks from President Donald Trump and Beijing that reinforced concerns about a potentially lengthy battle harming global growth.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.17 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.21 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.25 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields held just above 20-month lows on Thursday as concerns about the U.S.-China trade war denting global growth sustained demand for the safe haven debt.
Commodities Recap
Gold shook off headwinds from a stronger dollar to scale a near two-week peak on Thursday as data pointed to easing inflationary pressure in the United States, boosting expectations of a further interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold gained 0.7% to $1,288.03 per ounce by 2:13 p.m. ET (1813 GMT), having hit a high of $1,288.87 earlier, its highest level since May 17.U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $1,287.1 an ounce.
Oil prices fell almost 4% to their lowest in over two months on a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories and fears of a global economic slowdown due to the U.S.-China trade war.
Brent futures fell $2.58, or 3.7%, to settle at $66.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $2.22, or 3.8%, to close at $56.59.
