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America’s Roundup: Dollar drifts higher as US debt ceiling in spotlight, Wall Street closes lower , Oil dips as weaker China, US economic data offset IEA demand forecast-May 17th,2023

Market Roundup

•US Apr Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous

•Canada Mar Manufacturing Sales (MoM)  0.7%,0.7% forecast,-3.6% previous

•US Apr Retail Sales (YoY)  1.60%, 4.20% forecast,2.94% previous

• Canada Apr Median CPI (YoY)  4.2%,4.3% forecast,4.6% previous

• Canada Apr Trimmed CPI (YoY) 4.2%, 4.1% forecast,4.4% previous

• Canada Apr Common CPI (YoY) 5.7% , 5.5% forecast,5.9% previous

• Canada Apr CPI (YoY)  4.4%, 4.1% forecast,4.3% previous

• US  Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous

•Canada Apr CPI (MoM)  0.7%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous

• US  Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%, 0.8% forecast,-0.6% previous

• US Apr Retail Control (MoM)  0.7%, 0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous

• Canada Apr Core CPI (YoY) 4.1%. 4.4% forecast,4.3% previous

• Canada Apr Core CPI (MoM)  0.5%, 0.6% previous

• US May  NAHB Housing Market Index 50 45 forecast,45 previous

• US Mar Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% , 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous

• US Mar Business Inventories (MoM)  -0.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

• 04:30  Japan Mar Capacity Utilization (MoM ) 1.5% forecast,3.9% previous

• 04:30  Japan Mar Industrial Production (MoM)   0.8% forecast, 4.6% previous

Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday  as investors balanced concerns about stubborn euro area inflation against expectations that the Federal Reserve might end its policy-tightening cycle in June. Investors are also focused on the Fed’s next moves after U.S. central bankers on Monday signalled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given inflation that may be slow to improve and an economy showing only tentative signs of weakness. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0898(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  1.0844 (May 16th low ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0818(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The pound initially dipped but recovered  on Tuesday after data showed a rise in the UK unemployment rate, which could take some of the pressure off the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Britain’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% in the three months to March as more people sought to get back into the jobs market, driving the first fall in total payrolled employees in more than two years in April. Markets are attaching a 68% chance that the BoE will raise rates by a quarter of a point to 4.75% and a 32% chance of no change. Sterling fell  to a session low of $1.2466 before recovering to trade last at 1.2535.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2528 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2638 (11th May High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2436(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2377(Lower BB).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was barely changed against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, but it outperformed most other G10 currencies as hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data led to investors betting on a possible further rate hike by the Bank of Canada . Canada’s consumer price index rose 4.4% year-over-year in April after a 4.3% increase in March, marking the first increase in 10 months. Analysts had expected inflation to cool to 4.1%. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3470 per U.S. dollar, or 74.24 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3405 to 1.3493.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2980(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2810(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2768 (23rd May low).

USD/JPY: The dollars eased against Japan's yen on Tuesday as investors kept an eye on debt ceiling talks to avert a possible default that could reverberate across asset markets and damage confidence in the world's largest economy. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy's U.S. debt ceiling negotiations ended on Tuesday after less than an hour.The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, was up 0.2% on the day at 102.61 . Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.2% to 136.315 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.38(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.88(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.97(21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 134.40(38.2%fib)

Equities Recap

European shares fell  on Tuesday with automakers and miners leading losses as weak data from China fuelled concerns about an economic slowdown, while investors awaited more data on the euro zone economy.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down  by  0.34 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.16 percent.

U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday with the biggest boosts from the technology and healthcare sectors as investors appeared to bet on solid quarterly reports even as some worried that it was too early to celebrate.

Dow Jones closed down by  1.01% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.64 % percent, Nasdaq settled down  by 0.18 %percent.

Commodities Recap

 Gold fell below $2,000 on Tuesday after U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials drove bets that interest rate cuts may be delayed, while traders kept an eye on the  on the U.S. debt-ceiling talks.

Spot gold shed 1.6% to $1,987.39 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), after touching its lowest in two weeks at $1,989.10 earlier.U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% down at $1,993.

Oil futures dipped on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected economic data in China and the United States offset a forecast of higher global demand from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Brent crude futures settled 32 cents lower to $74.91 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged down 25 cents to $70.86.

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