Market Roundup
• China willing to reach agreement with U.S. – Xinhua
• Trump to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday
• British, Irish prime ministers say Brexit deal possible
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,684K, 1,653K forecast, 1,655K previous
• US Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Sep Core CPI (YoY) 2.4%,2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• US Sep Core CPI Index 264.60, 264.25 previous
• US Sep CPI (YoY) 1.7%,1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous
• US Sep CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 210K, 215K forecast 220K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 213.75K, 212.75K previous
• US Sep Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1%,0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Canada Aug New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,-0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.5%,0.1% previous
• Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD) 532.9B, 531.8B previous
• US Sep Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 21:30 New Zealand Sep Business NZ PMI 49.0 forecast, 48.4 previous
• 21:45 New Zealand Sep Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
• 21:45 New Zealand Sep Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) 0.5% forecast,, 2.8% previous
• 23:50 Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY) 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 23:50 Japan Sep M3 Money Supply 1,808.9T previous
• 02:00 Japan Oct Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 40.25 previous
• 02:00 China Oct Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 68.54 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:15 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speech
• 19:00 US FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as investors grew optimistic about a U.S.-China trade deal as well as a potential agreement on Britain’s exit from the European Union. On Thursday, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October to allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion, after what he called a very positive meeting with Boris Johnson. Ireland is at the center of what has been a prolonged Brexit impasse. Aside from Brexit, investors were hopeful about a potential U.S.-China trade agreement. The euro was up 0.31 percent at $1.1005. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1034 (Daily High), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1072 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0958 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose sharply against dollar on Thursday, after the British and Irish prime ministers revived hopes of a possible Brexit deal. Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar issued a joint statement saying they “could see a pathway to a possible deal” after a meeting which was seen by traders as a last-ditch attempt to revive talks over a possible deal over Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, scheduled for Oct. 31.The pound jumped and then extended its rise all the way to $1.2458, up 2.07% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2469 (Daily High), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2544 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2296 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2200 (Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as investors hoped for progress in trade talks between the United States and China. The also gain after data from Statistics Canada showed that new home prices rose 0.1% in August, the first increase since July 2018.Canada's employment report for September is due on Friday, which can help guide expectations for the Bank of Canada policy outlook. At 8:56 a.m. (1256 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3316 to the greenback, or 75.10 U.S. cents. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3346 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3287 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3243 (100 DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday, as hopes of a trade resolution between the United States and China cheered investors. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Thursday said China was willing to reach an agreement with the United States on matters both sides care about to prevent any further escalation in tensions, the state news agency Xinhua reported.Liu, China’s top trade negotiator, made his comment in Washington when he met with U.S. officials. Trade talks between the two countries started on Thursday. The greenback was 0.36% higher at 107.46 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.98 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.59 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.47 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 106.71 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Thursday, hit by a batch of bad news for healthcare companies and a series of new twists in the U.S.-China trade war ahead of top-level negotiations starting later in the day.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.58 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 1.27 percent.
U.S. stocks gained on Thursday on hopes that top-level U.S.-China trade talks would yield at least a partial deal, while a rise in Apple’s shares lifted the technology sector.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.58 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.68 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.63 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rose on Thursday morning amid hopes for a resolution in trade talks between the United States and China, alleviating some worries over slowing economic growth, as the two countries began a new round of negotiations in Washington.
The benchmark 10-year yield was up 6.4 basis points to 1.649%, with the two-year yield.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated from a one-week peak on Thursday, while palladium prices marked an all-time high, after a report suggested that China wants to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further escalation of a ongoing trade row.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,496.79 per ounce by 12:33 p.m. EDT (1633 GMT), having earlier hit a one-week high. U.S. gold futures were down 0.7% at $1,501.90.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by comments by the head of OPEC that the organization could take action to balance oil markets and that it will decide in December on supply for next year.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 1%, to $58.88 a barrel by 12:25 p.m. EDT (1625 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 78 cents, or 1.5%, at $53.37.
