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FxWirePro: Bullish and bearish scenarios of USD/MXN - Bidding cheap risk-reversals to serve hedging objectives of tail risk of Trump’s regime

Jul 06, 2017 11:49 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Bullish and bearish scenarios of USDMXN: Bullish scenario: USDMXN could be seen at 20 over 2H17 on a putative disorderly renegotiation of NAFTA, de-anchoring inflation expectations leading to bond outflows and local...

FxWirePro: Relative value options trades for EURUSD amid bullish neutral risk reversals

Jul 06, 2017 09:12 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The focus in the euro area today will be the account from the ECBs June Governing Council meeting which will be analyzed for any further insight into the likely timing of the ECBs announcement of a gradual tapering....

FxWirePro: Formulate knock out optionality structure for USD/CAD bearish potential

Jul 05, 2017 11:43 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

The bearish USDCAD scenarios (below 1.28) driven by: BoC indicates an intention to normalize rates earlier due to an improved global outlook. Global demand pushes oil prices to $50 plus and towards $60. The...

FxWirePro: A glimpse through euro risk reversals – Why and how does bidding 6m EUR/JPY RR serve delta hedge

Jul 04, 2017 12:33 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

EUR vol risk reversals remain low compared to the level of rates (refer above diagram). Also, in longer tails, the EUR volatility smile remains flat compared with the rates vs vol correlation seen since 2015 and over the...

FxWirePro: WTI and Brent crude prices on verge of hitting 4 weeks highs – RKI’s on its functionality, stay hedged on further fireworks for fifth

Jul 04, 2017 10:43 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

WTI crude prices have been inching higher towards $47 ahead of tomorrows EIAs inventory check, today the rallies seem to be little edgy snapping eight days of gains in what was the longest unbroken rally in more than five...

FxWirePro: RVs versus IVs in G7 FX space, what has low vol in it?

Jul 04, 2017 09:30 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Weve seen the H12017 has turned out to be one dominated by USD weakness, and the outperformance of EM carry, an outcome expected by few at the beginning of the year. FX vols enter H2 meaningfully cheap versus macro...

FxWirePro: Luring Lonnie’s optionality - USD/CAD unlikely to hit 1.23 knocks out from above 1.32

Jul 04, 2017 07:56 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Even the sharp renewed decline in the broad dollar is well explained by the fact that the US largely sat out of the rates repricing phenomenon that took hold of large parts of the rest of the G10 universe. The end result...

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Economy

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs

Indias services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 14 months during March, as the ongoing Middle East conflict weighed on domestic demand and cost pressures intensified sharply, according to the latest HSBC India...

Politics

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton for California Governor

Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Steve Hilton, a Fox News host and former British government official, in Californias upcoming gubernatorial race. Announcing his endorsement on Truth Social, Trump expressed...

Iran-US Ceasefire Talks: Pakistan Brokers "Islamabad Accord" to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan is playing a central role in high-stakes diplomatic efforts to end hostilities between Iran and the United States, with a proposed peace framework now on the table that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz...

Kim Jong Un's Daughter Emerges as North Korea's Likely Successor, South Korean Intelligence Says

South Koreas National Intelligence Service (NIS) has concluded that Kim Jong Uns teenage daughter, believed to be around 13 years old and named Ju Ae, is being actively positioned as the next leader of North Korea. Unlike...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...