USD/CHF Surges Amid Weak US Data: Bearish Signals Loom

USDCHF gained momentum despite weak US economic data.  It hits an intraday high of 0.80796  and is currently trading around 0.80791.

With starting unemployment claims climbing by 11,000 to 235,000, surpassing estimates of 225,000, and continuous claims hitting a three-year high of 1.97 million, the US labor market showed signs of easing for the week ending August 16, 2025. However, the insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.3%. Following solid July indicators in new orders (18.4), shipments (23.7), and employment (10.3), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August decreased to 5.9 from 15.9 in July, suggesting continuing but slower expansion in regional manufacturing. These trends point to a manufacturing industry that is still expanding but under limited pressure in the labor market.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside

The pair is trading above the   55-EMA,  below the 200 EMA, and 365 EMA on the 1-hour chart, indicating a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.8100, a break above targets 0.8135/0.8170/0.8215/0.8250.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8050; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8020/0.7980/0.7920/0.7860/0.7800.

Indicators (1-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Neutral

Directional Movement Index -  Bullish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8100 with a stop-loss at 0.81350 for a TP of 0.80250.