U.S. Treasury Yields Surge as 30-Year Hits 22-Year High 
U.S. Dollar Hits Two-Month High as Oil, Treasury Yields Surge 
RBI Uses $10 Billion Currency Swaps to Drain Excess Rupee Liquidity 
Japan Private-Sector Growth Slows as Domestic Demand Weakens 
Trump, Xi Focus on Trade and AI at White House Summit 
Australia Unemployment Hits Five-Year High Despite Strong Jobs Growth 
Canadian Dollar Faces Pressure as Fed-BoC Policy Gap Widens 
European Stocks Fall as Bond Yields and Geopolitical Risks Weigh 
Dollar Falls as Oil Eases, Yen Jumps on Intervention Signals 
Wall Street Ends Flat as Oil, Treasury Yields and Fed Jitters Rattle Markets 
Oil Prices Fall on U.S.-Iran Hormuz Deal Hopes 
Soybean Futures Slip as Traders Await Trump-Xi Trade Signals 
US Comfortable With Canada Trade Standoff as Import Bans Loom 
Fed Unveils Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act 
Gold Holds Near $4,275 as Rising Treasury Yields Fuel Fed Rate Hike Bets 
Gold Prices Fall as Treasury Yields Rise on Fed Rate Hike Bets 
Fed’s Hammack Says Bond Yield Surge Is Not Driven by Inflation Fears 
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After a turbulent year marked by tariff shocks, government shutdown fears, and abrupt immigration policy shifts, the U.S. economy is entering 2026 with momentum that many analysts did not anticipate. Despite facing what MRB Partners describes as a “quadruple policy whammy,” the economy has shown surprising resilience, maintaining growth near its potential and setting the stage for an even stronger performance next year as major fiscal support from President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” begins to take effect.
According to MRB Partners, the front-loaded fiscal stimulus is expected to offset lingering pressures from the ongoing trade war and provide a meaningful lift to overall economic activity. The firm’s strategists note that, barring any new policy shocks, U.S. growth in 2026 is positioned to surpassits potential rate. Real GDP for 2025 is projected to come in around 2%, supported by solid consumer spending and reinforced by high-frequency indicators such as Redbook retail data and the Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index.
Looking ahead, MRB forecasts real GDP growth of roughly 2.4% in 2026. This outlook reflects continued strength in household and corporate financial conditions, steady—though cooler—labor market performance, and ongoing increases in AI-related capital expenditures. Consumer spending, which remains the backbone of U.S. economic expansion, is expected to grow at about 2.2% in real terms. While slower income growth may pressure lower-income households, the anticipated introduction of tax-code changes by the Trump administration is likely to soften the impact.
However, MRB cautions that risks remain, particularly around inflation. Core CPI is expected to remain “sticky above 3%,” fueled by tariff pass-through effects and rising non-rent service costs. Persistent inflation and a stable unemployment rate could leave the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut interest rates further, keeping monetary policy only mildly accommodative.
This mix of fiscal stimulus, consumer resilience, and inflationary pressures will shape the economic landscape in 2026, positioning the U.S. for above-trend growth while keeping policymakers vigilant.
