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Bitcoin (BTC) price has bottomed out at $3,215 levels and is now preparing to consolidate before its next move up, the pioneer cryptocurrency is trading subtly to nudge above the $4,004 support (i.e. 21-DMAs).
In this write-up we emphasized on the actual market price and the estimation done by JP Morgan of the intrinsic value of Bitcoin that is shown in 1st chart and the ratio of price to intrinsic value is shown in 2nd chart.
Similar to the results of Hayes (2018), we find that the sharp spike in Bitcoin prices during 4Q’17 saw a significant overshoot of the market price relative to intrinsic value based on the cost of production approach, which then corrected as the rise in prices saw an increase in mining activity and as the market price subsequently declined.
Indeed, the market price peaked at just below $20,000 in mid-December 2017, while our intrinsic value estimate peaked at around $9,100 in early March 2018 by which time the market price had converged to this level.
This has raised some questions about what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin really is. Defining an intrinsic or fair value for any cryptocurrency is clearly challenging. Some researchers argue it has no fundamental value, while others estimate fair values well in excess of current prices.
One way to estimate a quantifiable intrinsic value for Bitcoin is to effectively treat it as a commodity and base it on the marginal cost of production. Mining cryptocurrencies consumes electric power, which results in a real-world cost incurred in nominal currency terms. In principle, a market price above that cost should induce miners to increase resources to mine coins, bringing the cost of mining higher until the marginal cost approaches the market price, while a price below that cost should induce higher cost producers to exit the market lowering the overall cost until it again approaches the marginal cost. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly BTC spot index is flashing at 69 levels (which is bearish), hourly USD spot index was at -60 (bearish) while articulating at (13:43 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
