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Softness in Korean trade and production likely to keep BoK’s monetary stance accommodative in 2016

Korean industrial output dropped unexpectedly 0.3% year on year in November, much weaker than what market consensus has expected. On a seasonally adjusted mom basis, the industrial production declined 2.1%.

This performance was primarily led by electronics that lost some of its earlier gains. On mom basis, the production of semiconductors dropped 9.7% and production of mobile devices fell 20.2%.

The capacity usage rate stretched its drop and fell to 72.7% hitting the lowest since April 2009. Issue of inventory overhang also showed no improvement, with the inventory/shipment ratio staying close to 1.30x peak reached during global financial crisis.

"All in, we believe the broad trend of weak external demand but stronger domestic services activity remains unchanged. The softness in trade and production is likely to keep the BoK's monetary stance accommodative into 2016", says Barclays in a research note.

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