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Reassessing risks of 2016

When equities tanked globally in January and world stock markets had their worst start to a new year, several risks emerged as guilty behind the move. As doldrums continued, investors withdrew billions of dollars from equity market even in February. Only recently after double bottom near 1820 area, S&P 500 is finding some support and leading the rally in equities for past two weeks.

So assessing the risks are very important to understand, whether the concerns subsided for good or is the relief temporary.

  • Chinese stock market - This was the first one to provide the flow, consecutive heavy selloff in Chinese equities after introduction of a circuit breaker system first ignited the panic in global markets. However as of now for the past week's global markets relation to Chinese stocks have fallen since volatility has dropped in CSI significantly. Nevertheless, any big selloffs by more than 7%, could easily trigger the fear back.
  • Chinese Yuan - This has been one of biggest movers of global fear. Fear of depreciation and devaluations have sparked fear since last August. After this year's devastating start and spread between offshore and onshore Yuan reaching all-time high, People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept a tight grip on Yuan, reducing volatility. However, recent 0.17% devaluation in fix (which was natural, pose Dollar gains) showed it can still spark fear.
  • US recession - After stock market turmoil and weaker US economic dockets, market was pricing strong possibility of US recession, however last week's stronger than expected GDP figure has put the fear at rest for the time being. This risk has been neutralized sharply.
  • Lower oil price - This is one of the biggest risks for equity markets as they are showing strong correlation (>95%) with oil price. Even if correlation falls, lower earnings for oil producers threaten buildup of global reserves, which is not likely to bear well for global equities and bonds.
  • Market Data
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