China’s Economy Sees Glimmers of Stability as Manufacturing Recovers, but Services Stumble

Though remaining below the 50-point mark indicating expansion, China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 49.2 in November 2025, its greatest in six months, thus its eighth straight month in contraction. Matching market projections, the slight increase indicates minor but significant enhancements in manufacturing and new orders, particularly for small companies and the high-tech industry, which have demonstrated resilience and optimism despite the broader downturn.

Conversely, the Non- Non-Manufacturing PMI plummeted sharply for the first time in almost three years, falling to 49.5 and disappointing expectations. Weak consumer spending and declining vacation demand have put fresh strain on the service sector, dragging the reading to its lowest since late 2022. For companies depending on domestic demand, this decline points to fresh headwind.

Early stabilization in manufacturing, notably in sectors like food processing and non-ferrous metals, is implied by the data even though both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries registered sub-50 readings, indicating general economic contraction. But the uneven character of China's recovery and the difficulties that policymakers have in boosting growth momentum are highlighted by persistent problems like low foreign demand and continuing difficulties in the real estate market.