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After a very painful start of the week, the dollar regained its colours in G10 space. Only the yen eventually outperformed the greenback, benefiting from the brutal surge of risk aversion with a short-lived USD/JPY plunge to 116 on Monday. The worst performers were the NZD and AUD, being the most directly exposed to the Chinese shock, and dropping to levels not seen since 2009. After a spike to 1.17, the EUR/USD eventually retraced lower within its range as market tensions softened. The sterling was not supported by UK GDP numbers, still strong but marking a slowdown from Q1.
The second part of the week saw the Russian ruble on fire, lifted by the recovery in oil prices with which the correlation remains substantial. In contrast, the South African rand boomed above 14 on Monday before normalising. The currency has nonetheless been undermined by the weak producer price inflation.
"While greatly exposed to the PBoC FX policy shift via the export channel, the KRW was eventually the best performer among Asian currencies this week. The won surged as military tensions between the two Koreas eased while the Kospi index posted a nearly 6% weekly performance. The CNY was very stable for a third consecutive week, maintaining most of the time just below 6.40 USD. The BRL debacle continues as the real fell to new all-time lows.Brazil recession deepened in Q2 while Q1 growth has been revised down substantially", says Societe Generale.
