RBI Likely to Hold Rates at 5.50%, But Surprise Cut Still Possible

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 5.50% during its upcoming meeting, though analysts caution that a surprise rate cut cannot be ruled out. According to a Reuters poll, nearly three-quarters of economists forecast a pause, but major financial institutions including Citi, Barclays, Capital Economics, and SBI suggest the possibility of an “insurance” cut to safeguard growth amid global uncertainties.

Since the beginning of the year, the RBI has already reduced rates by 100 basis points. However, private investment remains subdued, and financial conditions have tightened since the August policy meeting when the central bank held rates steady. Economists at Citi noted that the October meeting is “live,” with the RBI possibly opting for a dovish pause or a proactive rate cut to counter external risks such as U.S. trade tariffs and global slowdown pressures.

India’s economy grew 7.8% in the June quarter, a figure stronger than expected, though some analysts believe the inflation-adjusted data may exaggerate economic strength. Meanwhile, fiscal measures including income tax relief and GST rate rationalisation have provided some support, but rupee weakness and tariffs on Indian exports continue to weigh on the outlook.

Capital Economics predicts the RBI will resume easing, with one rate cut in October and another in December, citing subdued inflation that remains below the central bank’s 4% target. Economists also expect inflation to trend even lower due to GST cuts, while full-year growth estimates may be revised upward. SBI’s Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh argued that a cut now would position the RBI as forward-looking but stressed the importance of careful communication.

Still, many experts believe the central bank could wait until December, especially if trade negotiations improve. For now, bond and swap markets have not priced in a cut, suggesting that any surprise easing could trigger a sharp market rally.