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Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, yet remained on track to close April with notable gains following a surge driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. Brent crude futures for June delivery slipped 3.3% to $114.08 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 1.9% to $104.86. Despite the pullback, both benchmarks have experienced significant upward momentum in recent weeks.
The recent rally in global oil prices has largely been fueled by ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. Even with multiple ceasefire extensions involving the U.S., Iran, Israel, and Lebanon, the blockage of this key shipping lane has severely disrupted global crude supply, contributing to one of the largest oil supply shocks in history.
Earlier gains were also supported by reports suggesting potential escalation in U.S. military involvement. According to media sources, President Donald Trump is considering various strategic options, including a naval blockade of Iran, targeted military strikes, and operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have heightened market uncertainty and added a risk premium to crude oil prices.
Market participants are also closely monitoring diplomatic efforts, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled. Analysts suggest that while tensions remain elevated, global oil supply has not been as severely impacted as initially feared. JPMorgan estimates indicate that over 10% of global crude supply has been affected, yet price increases have remained relatively moderate compared to historical spikes.
Meanwhile, news that the United Arab Emirates plans to exit OPEC briefly pressured prices, raising expectations of increased production. However, analysts believe any supply boost may be delayed due to ongoing regional disruptions.
Experts advise investors to maintain a long-term perspective amid the volatility. Diversification remains key, as oil markets continue to react sharply to geopolitical headlines and shifting supply dynamics.
