Oil Prices Ease as U.S. Crude Stocks Surge and Russia-Ukraine Peace Prospects Pressure Market

Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Thursday after new U.S. government data revealed a much larger-than-expected jump in crude inventories, adding fresh concerns about oversupply heading into 2025 and 2026. Brent crude futures for January delivery edged down 0.25% to $62.84 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.4% to $58.40 per barrel. The pullback came just a day after both benchmarks gained over 1% as traders increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month—an event that typically supports fuel demand and energy prices.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 21, far surpassing analysts’ estimates of just a 55,000-barrel increase. Gasoline inventories grew by 2.5 million barrels, and distillate supplies expanded by 1.1 million barrels, pointing to mixed demand trends across the fuel market. Analysts at ING noted that the unexpected buildup was primarily driven by a sharp decline in crude exports combined with higher imports, a dynamic that added downward pressure on prices after Wednesday’s gains. The latest inventory figures fuel ongoing worries that rising production and steady stock growth could outweigh global demand in the coming years.

Geopolitical developments also weighed on market sentiment. The U.S. continues to push a new peace framework between Russia and Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicating readiness to consider the American-backed proposal. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week, raising speculation about a potential ceasefire or agreement that might ease Western restrictions on Russian oil exports. Any resolution that increases Russian supply could amplify existing market oversupply and further suppress prices. Analysts warned that a peace deal could eliminate much of the supply risk currently priced into the market.

With the OPEC+ meeting approaching this weekend, expectations lean toward the group maintaining current production levels, as the fundamental outlook remains similar to previous assessments. However, trading activity is likely to remain subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.