OPEC’s May production suggests overproduction and supply glut

May production report from OPEC suggests, despite the rebound in crude oil price supply glut continue to persist in the market.

May production highlight -

• Crude oil production rose by 1.2 million barrels/day in May 2015 from a year ago. The rise continue to suggest in their bid to increase market share by pushing high cost producers from the market, OPEC will continue to over produce in the coming quarters.
  
  
• 39% of than additional production came from Iraq, suggesting Iraq is back from its war time slowdown in production.
  
• Saudi Arabia produced 37% more crude compared to last year and in May production increased to 10.33 million barrels/day.
  
  
• Libya's production was disrupted to civil unrest after US troops ousted Muammar Gaddafi. However Libya's 19% production increase in May suggests that the country's production is coming back to life again.
  
  
• Iran remain major oil market attraction this year as production might rise sharply once the sanctions are removed if a nuclear accord is reached with Western powers. Production rose by 7.8% in May from a year ago.
  
  
• Some countries saw their production decline, Nigeria (1.9%), Algeria (-3.3%), Qatar (-4.3%) and Kuwait (-8.1%).

Brent is currently trading at $64.5/barrel. It might have some juice left to move up if dollar weakens, but broader fundamental trend remains downward.