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SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) has received an optimistic initiation from Wolfe Research, which assigned a $175 price target shortly after the company completed what is being described as the largest IPO in history. The bullish outlook comes as SpaceX shares surged nearly 19% on their first trading day, closing around $161 and continuing to climb in after-hours trading.
According to Wolfe Research, SpaceX’s unique advantage lies in its exceptionally low internal launch costs, creating one of the strongest competitive moats in the aerospace industry. The firm believes this cost leadership could drive approximately 70% revenue growth and nearly double EBITDA margins by 2030.
Analysts highlighted that SpaceX has fundamentally transformed the economics of space launches through reusable rocket technology. The Falcon 9 introduced first-stage reusability, significantly reducing launch expenses and improving profitability. However, the company’s next-generation Starship system is expected to take those efficiencies even further.
Unlike Falcon 9, which still requires a new upper stage for every mission, Starship is designed to be fully reusable with rapid turnaround capabilities. Wolfe estimates that launch costs could fall from roughly $14 million per Falcon 9 mission to between $3 million and $5 million per Starship launch, despite Starship carrying more than five times the payload capacity. Fuel expenses alone could eventually become the primary cost component, potentially reducing launch costs even further.
Beyond its launch business, SpaceX is also making significant progress with Starlink, its satellite internet network. Wolfe Research noted that Starlink reached a major financial milestone in 2024, generating positive EBITDA after capital expenditures. The firm expects the broadband business to become a major profit engine as subscriber growth accelerates globally.
Looking ahead, Wolfe forecasts that SpaceX could generate more than $90 billion in EBITDA and over $70 billion in EBITDA after capital expenditures by 2030. Combined with a projected twelve-fold increase in Starlink network capacity, analysts believe SpaceX is positioned to dominate both the commercial space and satellite internet markets for years to come.
