Norges Bank's next rate cut likely next year

Norges Bank will publish its interest rate decision on 5 November at 10.00 CET. It will not present a new interest rate forecast, but in the board's general assessment the central bank will compare the latest developments to the forecast made in September.

Analysts believe that bank rates will remain unchanged. Norges Bank's latest rate forecast is not more than 6 week old and in that a rate cut on this meeting was given zero probability. There is really not enough news about the development in the domestic economy since the last MPC meeting for Norges Bank to have changed its view significantly. 

The main question is therefore whether the wording indicates that the central bank sees a higher or lower probability for a cut further ahead. The September rate path indicated unchanged rates this year, but rather high probability for a cut next year, says Nordea Bank.