Norges Bank keeps rates on hold, likely to hike rate in September

The Norwegian central bank met today and kept the interest rates on hold, as anticipated. The Norges Bank also affirmed the signals from the monetary policy report in June. The monetary policy meeting today was an interim meeting without a new rate forecast nor press conference. The main take away is that the outlook for the economy and inflation has not altered much since June. The message in June was that rates would be hiked in September, before another hike follow in March noted Nordea Bank in a research report.

During its summary of incoming data from the June meeting Norges Bank judged the economic development among the trading partners as expected, although the global risk sentiment is slightly more shaky. The Norwegian labor market is as expected while underlying inflation has been slightly higher. The NoK is also judged as slightly softer.

“Going forward the main “surprise trigger” stems mainly from the NOK. If NOK remains at current levels going into the September meeting, it would warrant a significant upward revision of the rate path, implying a December hike, all else equal”, added Nordea Bank.