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China and India are set to increase oil imports from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas following new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil producers and shipping. These sanctions, imposed on companies like Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with 183 vessels, aim to curb Moscow’s revenue streams used to fund its conflict with Ukraine.
The sanctions have severely impacted Russia's ability to export crude, disrupting supplies to top buyers India and China. Chinese refiners, dependent on Russian ESPO Blend crude, face potential output cuts, while Indian refiners are turning to alternative sources. Russian crude exports handled by the sanctioned tankers amounted to over 530 million barrels last year, including 300 million barrels shipped to China, according to Kpler data. Freight costs are expected to soar as the available fleet shrinks.
Spot prices for Middle Eastern, African, and Brazilian oil grades have risen due to tightened Russian and Iranian supplies. Indian refiners, heavily reliant on Russian Urals oil, are now exploring alternatives such as U.S. and Middle Eastern crude. Analysts suggest these shifts will strengthen the Dubai benchmark and drive aggressive bidding for available cargoes.
The geopolitical developments have sent Brent crude prices surging past $81 per barrel, highlighting the global market’s sensitivity to supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, India's Russian oil imports climbed 4.5% last year, while China's increased by 2%, reflecting their strategic reliance on Moscow's supplies.
With the sanctions in place, experts predict a significant rebalancing of global oil flows. Middle Eastern and Atlantic Basin grades are likely to dominate, further reshaping the dynamics of global energy trade.
