2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
A potential shift in policymaking following the election of a US president would have a modest impact on trade overall, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today.
Moody's report, entitled "Sovereigns -- European Union: US Post-Election Shift in Trade Policy Would Have Modest Impact Overall," is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
Campaign proposals ahead of the US presidential election point to a period of less proactive foreign engagement by the US over time, whichever candidate wins. Outcomes could range from a continuation of the status quo to a retrenchment from trade and investment ties, and curbs on immigration.
"While some countries could face a negative effect in terms of investment from the US, trade accounts for less than 5% of GDP for most EU countries, and remittances are negligible," says Dietmar Hornung, an Associate Managing Director at Moody's.
The EU's trade exposure, measured in goods exports to the US, is limited at 7.6% of total exports and 2.5% of the EU's nominal GDP.
Key EU exports to the US are machinery and transportation equipment, chemicals and related products, and manufactured goods. The EU's exposure to the US in the services sector is smaller overall (1.5% of GDP as of 2015) than it is in terms of goods exports.
Ireland (A3 positive) stands out as being the most significantly exposed, followed by Belgium (Aa3 stable), Germany (Aaa stable) and the Netherlands (Aaa stable).
Investment exposure is substantial in some cases. Luxembourg (Aaa stable), Ireland and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands, the UK (Aa1 negative) and Cyprus (B1 stable), might potentially be negatively affected by a slowdown of US investment. In 2014, FDI from the US amounted to 716%, 124%, 85.5%, 20% and 9.3%, respectively.
Remittances are negligible. For most EU sovereigns, remittances from the US to the EU account for 0.5% of GDP or less.
