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Markets price-in 90% probability of RBA rate cut next week

Today's weaker than expected inflation numbers has led to skyrocketing expectation of a rate cut by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week, when the bank is set to meet to announce decision on November 3rd.

  • In latest policy statement RBA had announced that it is now less concern over its housing market as it worked its way to contain the risks stemming from a collapse in prices with country's regulators.

So, if it wants to act, today's data showed that inflation on the higher side won't be an issue.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean inflation has dropped to lowest level in more than three years.

As read from the swap market, rate cut expectation from RBA has just spiked after today's inflation release.

  • Market pricing of a possibility of a rate cut of 25 basis points has moved up to 90% region from just around 60% before the release.

Despite so today's outcome from FOMC remains vital.

  • If Aussie weakens significantly along with other currencies against Dollar, due to hawkish tone in FED policy statement, RBA might choose to hold policy steady on 3rd November.

Aussie is currently trading at 0.713 against Dollar, down -0.8% so far today.

  • Market Data
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