Listless PMIs across CEE

PMIs continued to move sideways in October but the slippage of the key proxy indicators such as the Czech PMI and still low absolute level of the PMI in 'troubled' countries such as Russia and Turkey suggest that demand conditions around CEE have softened over the past quarter. 

"This is likely to be reflected both by H2 GDP data and by upcoming regional inflation data. The PMI readings are consistent with the view that CEE CenBanks will look to implement further monetary easing in 2016", says Commerzbank. 

The argument rests more on the inflation view than on the growth view since not even a humming economy necessarily causes a rise in inflation, currently the main problem of CenBanks missing their inflation target, but however, dovish growth indicators are also likely to be FX-negative to some degree.