Environmental Group Sues to Block Trump Image on U.S. National Park Passes 
Japan Weighs New Tax Breaks to Boost Corporate Investment Amid Spending Debate 
Trump Signs Executive Order to Establish National AI Regulation Standard 
Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterm Elections Despite Recent Victories, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows 
Australia’s Under-16 Social Media Ban Sparks Global Debate and Early Challenges 
Mexico Moves to Increase Tariffs on Asian Imports to Protect Domestic Industries 
U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Amid Shift in Brazil Relations 
Trump Signals Two Final Candidates for Fed Chair, Calls for Presidential Input on Interest Rates 
Trump Administration Unveils High-Priced “Trump Gold Card” Visa Program 
Brazil Arrests Former Peruvian Foreign Minister Augusto Blacker Miller in International Fraud Case 
U.S. Special Forces Intercept Ship Carrying Military Components Bound for Iran 
International Stabilization Force for Gaza Nears Deployment as U.S.-Led Planning Advances 
U.S. Bomber Flights Over Sea of Japan Signal Strong Alliance With Tokyo Amid China-Russia Drills 
Trump Claims Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire After Intense Border Clashes 
Thailand Moves Toward Early Elections After Parliament Dissolution 
U.S. Expands Sanctions on Venezuela, Targeting Maduro Family and Oil Tankers 
Modi and Trump Hold Phone Call as India Seeks Relief From U.S. Tariffs Over Russian Oil Trade 
As of July 12, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken President Joe Biden in PredictIt’s 2024 general election market, priced at $0.23 compared to Biden’s $0.21. Former President Donald Trump remains the market leader at $0.62.
Donald Trump Leads PredictIt Market for 2024 Election; Harris Surpasses Biden in Democratic Race
As of July 12, 2024, the PredictIt market is a fascinating landscape of uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump (R) is currently priced at $0.62, Vice President Kamala Harris at $0.23, and President Joe Biden (D) at $0.21 in the 2024 presidential general election market.
According to Ballotpedia News, since May 16, 2024, Trump has maintained his position as the market leader, but the share prices of other candidates are close behind, with no other candidate exceeding $0.10. The market's assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring is approximately reflected in the share price, which fluctuates by market demand.
Biden is currently dominating the Democratic presidential primary market at $0.43, with Harris following at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
Trump is currently the undisputed leader in the Republican presidential primary market, with a commanding share price of $0.94. No other candidate comes close, with a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
PredictIt Faces Uncertain Future Amid CFTC Rule Proposal to Ban Election Wagering Markets
PredictIt, a pioneering online political futures market, is a powerful tool for understanding the outcome of elections. Users purchase shares based on the outcome of political events using real money. Several contracts are associated with each event, such as an election, each corresponding to a distinct result. Services like PredictIt can provide invaluable insight into the outcome of elections.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 on May 10, 2024, to issue a rule proposal that could potentially prohibit election wagering markets, according to Reuters. The commission declared its intention to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date of February 2023. PredictIt announced on its website that it would cease trading on February 15, 2023, unless the CFTC's policy is altered. In March 2023, the CFTC overturned this decision, enabling the platform to operate legally.
