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Ireland’s domestic economy could shrink by up to 1.8% by 2032 if the United States and European Union impose lasting tit-for-tat tariffs, according to a study co-authored by Ireland’s finance ministry and the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The report highlights the risks posed by U.S. protectionist policies, which could have a disproportionate impact on Ireland due to its deep integration into global trade. With major U.S. multinationals playing a crucial role in Ireland’s economy—driving jobs, exports, and tax revenues—any disruption could be significant.
Ireland’s finance ministry previously projected that modified domestic demand (MDD), its key economic metric, would grow at an annual rate of 2.9% until 2030. However, the study found that a 10% bilateral tariff on goods and services could lower MDD by 1.7%, while a 25% tariff could reduce it by 1.8%. In the worst-case scenario, employment would drop 3%, exports would fall 5%, and government debt would rise 1.8%.
The study also warns that a 10% non-tariff barrier—such as restrictive U.S. trade policies—could reduce MDD by 1.6%. Given that a handful of large U.S. corporations contribute heavily to Ireland’s corporate tax revenue, trade barriers could further weaken public finances if firms relocate production.
As global trade uncertainties rise, Ireland remains vulnerable to shifts in U.S. policy, underscoring the need for strategic economic planning.
