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International Users Behind Trump Bets on Polymarket
Recent speculation has emerged around four accounts on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed substantial bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election. According to a reliable source, these accounts are owned by non-Americans.
Current Odds and Polling Trends
As of now, opinion polls suggest a competitive race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, set for November 5. However, on Polymarket, Trump's odds are significantly higher, with a 60% chance of victory compared to Harris's 40%. The source confirmed that these four accounts are responsible for over $30 million in bets, aligning with earlier reports from the Wall Street Journal.
Regulatory Landscape and Restrictions
Polymarket prohibits Americans from betting on U.S. elections, and the source has verified that its users are international. The platform rigorously certifies large traders to prevent the use of VPNs that could disguise their locations.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has historically restricted Americans from online election betting, stating that the agency is not equipped to regulate such markets effectively. Despite this, some proponents believe these contracts could offer valuable insights into election outcomes.
Legal Developments in Prediction Markets
In November 2023, Kalshi, another betting exchange, challenged the CFTC's ban on U.S. election betting. A federal appeals court recently ruled in favor of Kalshi, potentially allowing Americans to engage in political betting just ahead of the election. Currently, Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%, echoing the dynamic shifts in public sentiment.
In a statement, Kalshi commented that Trump's increasing odds reflect normal market activity, emphasizing the prediction market's ability to rapidly aggregate information from diverse sources.
