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Gold’s recent rally may be nearing its peak, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, who note that the September–October surge has lasted 29 trading days—well beyond the historical median of 18–19 days. Analyst Michael Hsueh explained that this phase has exhibited a rare blend of strong trend momentum and low volatility, conditions that have supported trend-following investment strategies. However, the recent uptick in realized volatility could signal that this favorable environment is starting to fade.
Despite the change in market tone, Hsueh does not anticipate a sharp correction. He draws a parallel to the June–August consolidation, when gold prices paused without significant declines. Notably, fair value models have climbed by $260–$290 per ounce since early August, providing a solid cushion even as spot prices have jumped nearly $700 per ounce.
Another distinguishing feature of the current rally is the broad participation of white metals. Silver prices have surged to $51 per ounce, driven by record three-month lease rates of 20%, while palladium has finally caught up after underperforming for most of 2025. Hsueh emphasized that this synchronized movement across precious metals reflects a return to long-term historical norms—making earlier gold-only rallies appear more anomalous.
Although futures positioning data remains unavailable due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, ETF flows reveal a slowdown in buying rather than outright selling. Hsueh also referenced Umicore’s gold leaseback transaction, clarifying that it was financially motivated, not a directional bet on gold prices.
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank expects the gold-to-WTI ratio to rise toward 72–73, achievable either through gold advancing toward $4,450 per ounce or crude drifting toward the bank’s $55 per barrel 2026 target.
