Gold Cracks Below $4,500 as Safe-Haven Shine Fades; Technical Breakdown Signals Sell-on-Rallies Toward $4,000

Gold trades below $4500 as demand for safe-haven assets decreases. After hitting a peak around $4773 this month, it’s currently hovering near $4474.

A rare confluence of three negative influences that have simultaneously robbed gold of its attractiveness is driving its May 2026 selloff. First, a hawkish repricing at the Federal Reserve—where dissenting members pushed for the removal of easing guidance and markets now price a 42% chance of a December rate hike—has lifted the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, sending prices down 1.04% to $4,488.30 by May 21. Second, better possibilities for a permanent Iran ceasefire have driven down the geopolitical premium that had pushed gold up 3.2% to $4,850/oz in April; safe-haven demand has decreased so dramatically that the metal has lost around 12% since the war started. Third, increasing U.S. Treasury yields—with the 10-year rising above 4.57% and the 30-year past 5.1%—have strengthened the competition for capital by drawing flows away from gold and toward higher-yielding fixed income. Gold is currently testing important support levels as monetary policy rather than geopolitics asserts itself as the main market driver with all three vectors (directionality) bearishly aligned.

 Major support-$4400/$4350/$4000. Major bearishness below $4000. Any violation below targets $3605/$3000/$2800. 

 It is good to sell on rallies around $4628-30 with SL around $4800 for a TP of $4000/$3600.