The November US labour market report sent mixed messages. Payrolls growth was largely as expected, and close to the monthly average for 2016, at 178k.
However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.6%, the lowest since 2007, while earnings growth slipped to just 2.5% YoY.
The ADP estimate of December private sector employment growth was weaker than expected at 153k, down from 215k.
However, this is not always a reliable forecaster of the official data, in November, for example, it overestimated by about 60k.
Spot ref: 115.991, USDJPY 1W risk reversals, IVs and IV skews are evidencing mounting hedging interests for downside risks (while articulating).
We wouldn't be surprised if it shows interim spikes, bears likely to drag again towards 113.169 and 111.450 levels sooner or later as the delta risk reversals favour bearish targets, hence in order to tackle these tricky swings we reckon debit put spreads are best suitable as the IVs and premiums are reasonable considering daily swings on technical charts.
So, here goes the strategy, Debit Put Spread = Go long 2w ATM -0.49 delta Put + Short 1W (1%) OTM Put with lower Strike Price with net delta should be at around -0.40.
For a net debit bear put spread reduces the cost of trade by the premium collected (on the shorts of OTM put) and keeps option trader to participate in downward moves and any upswings in abrupt.


Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays




