2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Thailand Economy Faces Competitiveness Challenges as Strong Baht and U.S. Tariffs Pressure Exports 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
OTC Updates:
Please be informed that the implied volatilities of EURCHF ATM contracts of all expiries have been the least among G10 currency segment.
While, the 25-delta risk of reversal of EURCHF has also not been indicating any dramatic shoot up nor any slumps, but seems to be one of the pairs to be hedged for downside risks as it indicates puts have been relatively costlier.
What drives bullish CHF:
The SNB continues to taper but at a faster pace.
The excess net private sector demand for CHF stands at 10% of GDP, which would likely cause the franc to appreciate by 5-10%in the absence of countervailing FX intervention.
The US Treasury cites Switzerland as a currency manipulator.
French elections - President Le Pen, CHF forecasts are predicted on Le Pen losing the French election and would need to be upgraded by at least 5% should she triumph (we attach a 15% probability to this scenario).
Data Events:
In Switzerland, the GDP has disappointed the streets, Switzerland's economy expanded 0.1 pct in the December quarter of 2016, the same pace as an upwardly revised figure in the third quarter and missing markets estimates of a 0.5 pct growth. The GDP growth rate remained at its lowest figure since the June quarter 2015. Year-on-year, the economy grew by 0.6 pct, slowing sharply from an upwardly revised 1.4 pct expansion in the September quarter and below consensus of a 1.3 pct growth. It was the weakest expansion since the fourth quarter 2015.
While retail sales data has managed to print the better than expected number, Retail sales in Switzerland shrank 1.4 pct year-on-year in January of 2017, following an upwardly revised 4.1 pct fall in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 2 pct decline.
The US unemployment claims at around 13:30 GMT.
We advocate below both spot as well as option trades ahead of above data events:
Trade Recommendation:
Stay short a 3m strangle in EURCHF (sell a 1.0850 call and a 1.03 put).
Alternatively, stay short EURCHF in cash (first entered 1.0720 in December).
